• Research Briefing

    Nigeria: MINT-ed?

    Jim O’Neill, the economist who first coined the term ‘BRICS’ in 2001, has announced that Nigeria (along with Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey [acronym: MINT) could become one of the next emerging ‘economic giants’. Yet there remain grounds for wondering whether Mr O’Neill’s view is overly rose-tinted. In sharp contrast to him, some recent observers have been talking instead of possible ‘revolution’ or the ‘disintegration’ of Nigeria. Perhaps, like pre-1914 Russia, it is precariously teetering between all three options.

  • Research Briefing

    The African Union, Kenya and the International Criminal Court

    At an extraordinary summit of the African Union on 11-12 October 2013, heads of state and government agreed that Kenya should send a letter to the UN Security Council requesting the deferral of the ICC’s ongoing proceedings against the President and Deputy President of Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, both of whom have been charged with crimes against humanity in the context of the post-election violence during 2007-08. Western governments face an acute dilemma. Until now, they have been strong supporters of the ICC’s work in Kenya. However, in recent years, Kenya has become an active regional player in combating Islamist terrorism and recently suffered a major attack by al-Shabaab on a shopping mall in Nairobi. If the UN Security Council were to defer the proceedings, this would be the first time that this has happened since the Court’s inception.

  • Research Briefing

    Nepal’s peace process: towards elections for a new Constituent Assembly

    After 18 months of political uncertainty about the prospects for its apparently endless peace process, Nepal is due to hold elections for a new Constituent Assembly on 19 November. The original Constituent Assembly elected under the 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement was dissolved in May 2012 having failed to agree a new Constitution. A break-away Maoist faction and a number of ethnically-based parties have pledged to boycott and disrupt the elections; this could bring them into direct confrontation with the army.

  • Research Briefing

    In brief: Mali – Ibrahim Boubacar Keita wins the presidential election

    On 11 August Mali held the second round of its presidential election. The overwhelming winner with 77.6% of the vote was Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (IBK). He beat Soumaila Cisse, who won 22.4% of the vote. IBK has a credible mandate and has pledged to push ahead with national reconciliation, tackle corruption and rebuild the country’s collapsed economy. But many challenges lie ahead.

  • Research Briefing

    In brief: Zimbabwe – 2013 elections

    Zimbabwe held presidential and parliamentary elections on 31 July 2013. They resulted in overwhelming victory for President Robert Mugabe and his Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and shattering defeat for Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change-Tsvangirai (MDC-T). The 2013 elections were certainly extremely flawed – it had been obvious for some time that they would be – but there is no escaping the fact that President Mugabe and ZANU-PF have comprehensively outmanoeuvred their rivals.

  • Research Briefing

    In brief: the controversy over the November 2013 Commonwealth Summit in Sri Lanka

    In November 2009, the Commonwealth Heads of State and Government Meeting (CHOGM) agreed that its 2013 meeting should be held in Sri Lanka. This decision has faced persistent criticism since then, with organisations including Human Rights Watch arguing that the Sri Lankan Government’s human rights record is so poor that the Commonwealth should relocate the Summit elsewhere. The Commonwealth Secretary-General, Kamalesh Sharma, has rejected such calls. So far, Canada is the only Commonwealth member state to say that it will definitely not be attending the Summit. The Prime Minister, David Cameron, and the Foreign Secretary, William Hague, have confirmed that they will both be attending the Summit on behalf of the British Government (Prince Charles will represent the Queen). The official British position is that they will use their presence to raise concerns about the human rights situation in Sri Lanka.

  • Research Briefing

    In brief: Kenya after the March 2013 elections

    The 4 March presidential elections saw Jubilee Alliance candidate Uhuru Kenyatta win a narrow victory in the first round. , Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, are both due to be tried by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in connection with the violence that followed the December 2007 elections. The victory of Kenyatta and Ruto has presented Western governments with a dilemma. While Western rhetorical support for the ICC remains strong, many in Kenya and beyond believe that pressure is being exerted on it ‘behind the scenes’ to soften its position so that the cases do not excessively impede Western cooperation with the new Government.

  • Research Briefing

    Disputes over the British Indian Ocean Territory: a survey

    Between 1968 and 1973 the British Government cleared the entire Chagos Archipelago of its inhabitants, opening the way for a US military base on the biggest island, Diego Garcia. The Archipelago was made a British overseas territory, the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT). Two main disputes have arisen from these events. One has been between the Chagos Islanders and the British Government over the legality of the former’s removal and whether they have a right to return. The other has been between the UK and Mauritius about sovereignty over the BIOT. The UK has said that it will cede sovereignty to Mauritius once the BIOT is no longer required for defence purposes.

  • Research Briefing

    Burundi: recent political and security developments

    Since 2010 President Jean-Pierre Nkurunziza and his CNDD-FDD government have been at loggerheads with the main opposition parties. The stand-off has raised concerns that Burundi’s status as a ‘post-conflict’ country might be in jeopardy. These concerns have been compounded by occasional armed skirmishes between the security forces and remaining rebel groups. However, with the next elections due in 2015, in recent months there has been some progress in terms of promoting political dialogue.

  • Research Briefing

    Rwanda: recent political and security developments

    Paul Kagame and the Rwandan Patriotic Front remain in a dominant position domestically, with parliamentary elections due in September 2013 and presidential elections set for 2017. President Kagame has indicated that he may step down then. But criticism continues of the government's intolerance of open dissent. Rwanda's role in in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo remains controversial too and there is virtually complete consensus across the international community that it has been providing support to rebel groups, including most recently M23.

  • Research Briefing

    In brief: the Commonwealth Charter

    On 11 March 2013 in London the Queen signed the Commonwealth Charter. However, while the UK Government has welcomed it, there has been considerable criticism of the Charter on the grounds that it is not legally binding and cannot be effectively enforced. In September 2012 three Commonwealth Nobel Laureates, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, Nadine Gordimer and Wole Soyinka had said that a weak and ineffective Charter should not be endorsed. LGBT rights campaigners have also been vocal in signalling disappointment with the final text.

  • Research Briefing

    The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands: tension between Japan and China in the East China Sea

    Tensions between Japan and China in connection with long-standing rival claims to sovereignty over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea have deepened since September 2012, with nationalist sentiment being stirred up in both countries. Taiwan also claims the islands. Japan, which administers the islands, does not accept that there is a dispute to be resolved. China insists that there is. This note briefly summarizes the competing claims and reviews developments over the last six months or so.

  • Research Briefing

    In brief: South Africa – Zuma set for a second term in 2014

    In December 2012, at the African National Congress (ANC) conference in Mangaung, President Jacob Zuma was re-elected leader of the party. This makes it virtually inevitable that he will be South Africa’s next President following national elections next year, which the ANC remain overwhelming favourites to win comfortably. Nonetheless, all is far from entirely rosy for Zuma and the ANC. In recent years it has been deeply divided over economic policy, damaged by mounting official corruption and faced with growing discontent from below over its alleged failure to deliver better public services.

  • Research Briefing

    North Korea: domestic developments during Kim Jong-Un’s first year in power

    This note briefly surveys domestic developments in North Korea since the death of Kim Jong-Il in December 2011 and the succession of his son, Kim Jong-Un. The nuclear issue is referred to only in passing. Insofar as we can know, Kim Jong-Un appears to have consolidated power smoothly and quickly. There are signs that the new leadership wants to shift from a 'Military First' to a 'People First' policy, which will involve economic reform measures. However, there are no real signs yet of an improvement on human rights.

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