Siniša Karan, the candidate of the ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), won the early presidential election on 23 November 2025 in the Republika Srpska (RS), the Serb-majority territory in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). This came after BiH authorities ordered the previous RS president, Milorad Dodik, to be removed from office following a court conviction earlier in the year.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is divided into two principal territorial entities: Republika Srpska (RS), which is mainly Serb, and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) which is mainly Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) and Croat.

Why was Milorad Dodik removed from office?

Dodik had been president of RS since 2022. He had previously been RS president from 2010 to 2018 and had then served as the Serb member of the BiH collective presidency (comprising representatives from the Serb, Croat and Bosniak communities in BiH) from 2018 to 2022.

Dodik has led the Bosnian Serbs in RS in taking an assertive separatist stance within BiH. This has caused international concerns about a threat to the 1995 Dayton Agreement, the peace agreement put in place following the end of the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the early 1990s.

Dodik had clashed with the High Representative, Christian Schmidt, the internationally appointed figure whose role was created under the Dayton Agreement to oversee the civilian implementation of the peace settlement. The High Representative has powers to remove public officials from office and impose laws on BiH as necessary to safeguard the peace agreement.

In February 2025, a court in BiH found Dodik guilty of failing to implement decisions of the High Representative. He was sentenced to a year in prison (later commuted to a fine) and banned from holding the post of president of RS for six years.

Legal proceedings had been launched against Dodik in 2023 after he signed into law legislation aimed at allowing RS to ignore decisions of the High Representative and suspending rulings of the BiH constitutional court. This followed other legislation and actions viewed as setting RS on a separatist path. These actions had intensified after a High Representative decision in 2021 to impose a law banning genocide denial related to the 1995 Srebrenica massacre.

Why did Dodik change his position on leaving office?

Dodik initially refused to accept the court verdict. The RS National Assembly backed Dodik up by adopting legislation aimed at preventing BiH judicial bodies from operating in RS and also proposing a new draft constitution for RS.

Dodik continued to maintain he would not step aside as president after a court appeal against the verdict was rejected and the BiH Central Electoral Commission ordered Dodik’s removal from office in early August 2025. He was supported by the RS National Assembly, which voted to call a referendum asking the people of RS if they accepted the state court’s verdict and “the decisions of the unelected foreigner Christian Schmidt”.

However, at the end of September 2025, Dodik said he was stepping down as president. The RS National Assembly appointed an interim president in October, pending a presidential election in November. The National Assembly also annulled several of the laws viewed internationally as setting RS on a separatist path.

The US subsequently lifted sanctions previously imposed on Dodik and his associates. The Trump administration welcomed the reversal of separatist legislation by the National Assembly in October and said this followed US-led efforts “to defuse the crisis” in BiH, and that the US had “worked deliberately and discreetly to secure de-escalation”. Commentators suggest this reflects a new transactional US approach to the Western Balkans.

How has the UK responded to developments in RS?

In recent years the UK has endorsed several joint statements with the USA, Germany, France and Italy (the Quint) in condemning moves to withdraw RS from the BiH institutions and Dodik’s “separatist and destabilizing rhetoric and actions” (PDF).

The UK Government described legislation adopted by the RS National Assembly following Dodik’s conviction in February 2025 as in “clear violation of the Dayton peace agreement”. The government said in November 2025 that it had no plans to lift UK sanctions against Dodik and Zeljka Cvijanovic (the Serb member of the BiH collective presidency) previously imposed in April 2022.

How have other countries reacted to developments in RS?

Both Russia and China objected to the appointment of the current High Representative, Christian Schmidt, in 2021 and proposed ending the role.

Dodik has visited Russia and met with Russia’s President Putin on several occasions. Dodik sought to block attempts by BiH to align with EU sanctions against Russia following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and RS and Russia have continued to discuss economic cooperation initiatives. In January 2023, Dodik awarded President Putin the RS highest medal of honour for his “patriotic concern and love” for RS.

The Russian government described the court sentencing of Dodik in February 2025 as political persecution and an absurd and fabricated case. It later referred to the “illegal termination” of Dodik’s mandate, also blaming Western neo-colonialism and calling for the closure of the High Representative’s office.

Serbia’s President, Aleksandar Vučić, has avoided endorsing Bosnian Serb separatism but has been critical of sanctions against the RS leadership and described the court verdict against Dodik in February 2025 as “shameful, unlawful, antidemocratic and designed to break down Republika Srpska”. Along with Hungary (see below), Serbia asked Interpol to reject a request for an international warrant to arrest Dodik in March 2025.

An EU-led force of around 1,500 troops has a peacekeeping role in BiH, mandated by the United Nations Security Council. The EU has encouraged dialogue within BiH and reforms to prepare BiH for eventual EU membership. In March 2024, EU leaders agreed to commence EU accession negotiations with BiH once various reforms related to political institutions, the rule of law and fundamental rights  had been undertaken. The EU warned in late 2024 that the political crisis in RS was jeopardising BiH’s path to EU accession.

There have previously been calls within the EU to impose sanctions on the RS leadership, but these have been blocked by some Member States, notably Hungary. Hungary has given financial and political support to RS. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán described Dodik’s sentencing in February 2025 as a “political witch-hunt” and later criticised “EU-appointed overseers” attempts to remove him.

The November 2025 presidential election: Will Dodik continue to direct developments?

The SNSD candidate, Siniša Karan, won the presidential election on 23 November 2025 with 50.3% of the vote, but on a low turnout of 35%. Karan is an ally of Dodik, and some commentators have suggested that Dodik will continue to “pull the strings”  behind the scenes. Following the election, Dodik said that those who had tried to remove him from power had “got two Dodiks” instead. Karan pledged to continue Dodik’s policies “with ever greater force”.

Karan’s initial presidential term will last for less than year, with another presidential election in RS scheduled for October 2026 as part of the general elections across BiH.

Further reading

About the Author: Stefano Fella is a Commons Library researcher specialising in the EU.

Photo by: This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.