Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and UK national security

The Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security assessment identified six globally significant ecosystems at risk of collapse, and the implications of this for UK national security:

• the Amazon rainforest
• the Congo Basin
• South East Asian coral reefs
• South East Asian mangroves
• the Himalayas
• the Boreal forests in Canada and Russia

It said it “assesses a reasonable worst case scenario and applies the uncertainty frameworks used in intelligence assessments”, stressing that “its aim is to support UK national security planning by identifying risks to the UK from global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse”. The government has stressed that the report is “not a prediction of future possibilities” but rather a strategic tool to help plan for future shocks.

It found that the collapse of any of the six ecosystems identified would displace millions of people, change global weather patterns, increase global food and water scarcity, and drive geopolitical competition for remaining resources.

On publishing the assessment, the government said it highlighted “opportunities for innovation, green finance and global partnerships that can drive growth while safeguarding the ecosystems that underpin our collective security and prosperity”.

The publication of the assessment was welcomed by environmental, farming and security organisations. Concerns were raised by some of them about the methodology used and how helpful it would be in ensuring the issues raised are addressed nationally and internationally.