Declining pupil numbers in England

Pupil numbers in England are expected to decline in the coming years because of population changes. This would have significant policy implications in the management and funding of schools.

The impact may vary regionally, with some areas experiencing higher pupil numbers even as the overall number falls. This briefing discusses some of the causes of the change and the choices policy makers face as a result.

Trends in school and pupil numbers

The number of pupils in state nursery and primary schools peaked in 2019 at 4.6 million. In 2026, this figure had fallen to 4.4 million (-5%) and is projected to reach 4.0 million by 2031 (-11% on 2026, and -15% on the 2019 peak). The number of pupils in state secondary schools peaked later, at 3.2 million in 2024, and is projected to fall to 3.0 million by 2031 (-8% on the peak).

Pupil rolls in state special schools and alternative provision (AP) have increased in recent years, and are expected to peak in 2027. The number of pupils in independent schools is expected to remain relatively stable. This is shown in more detail in the chart below.

Source: Department for Education (DfE), National pupil projections, July 2026, custom table. Note: Independent includes non-maintained special schools.

The chart below shows the proportionate changes in pupil numbers by school types. The proportionate decrease in pupil numbers is expected to be largest in state nursery and primary schools, followed by state secondary schools.

Source: Department for Education (DfE), National pupil projections, July 2026, custom table. Note: Independent includes non-maintained special schools.

Local area changes

Local authorities are required to produce estimates of future pupil numbers in their area. These are then published by the Department for Education (DfE) and are used to plan things like future funding. Local authorities may produce these estimates using their own methods, though the DfE provides guidance on approaches which may be used to do so.

These local-authority-produced estimates forecast a net 4.2% decrease in state primary pupil numbers and a 0.6% increase in state secondary pupil numbers across England from 2025/26 to 2029/30. This compares with 8.8% fall in primary pupils and 4.5% fall in secondary pupils from 2025 to 2029 predicted by the DfE’s centrally calculated pupil projects. These estimates differ as different methods may be used to produce them.

The DfE publishes data reviewing the accuracy of local authority forecasts one and three years after they are made, in its local authority school places scorecards publication. In 2024/25, of the 151 local authorities where data is available, 139 (92%) overestimated how many primary school pupils they would have in 2025/26 and 137 (91%) overestimated how many secondary pupils they would have. Predictions made about 2025/26 in 2022/23 were similar, overestimating primary pupils in 109 (72%) cases and secondary pupils in 137 (91%) cases.

The Office for National Statistics also produces estimates of the future population in local authority districts. While not all children living in an area will necessarily attend a state school there, this is still useful for estimating the future school-aged population.

The maps below show:

• The changes local authorities are anticipating in their pupil numbers in the coming years. This is based on predictions made in the 2024/25 academic year, and uses the predictions for 2025/26 as its base point.
• The population changes the ONS is expecting in the coming years. This is based on projections made in 2025 using data from 2022. This data relates to local authority districts within their 2022 boundaries and uses the projected values for 2026 as its base point. It is based on the “five year migration variant” projections from the ONS to align with their publications.

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Sources: DfE, Local authority pupil forecasts; ONS, Population projections for local authorities by single year of age and sex, England, 2022-based five year migration variant

School closures

Given declining pupil rolls, many commentators have raised concerns about school closures. A January 2026 London Councils report observed:

In some instances, a local authority’s duty to ensure the overall sustainability and high standards of local schools may result in decisions to close schools. Several primary schools in London have already closed due to falling demand, and more closures are expected in the future. Decisions on which schools to close are informed by a range of factors, including parental preference (i.e. the popularity of schools), Ofsted ratings, travel routes, projected demand, and financial sustainability.

Other sources – including the specialist education press – have pointed out the issue is not confined to London, highlighting school closures, contractions or mergers in other parts of England.

It is hard to predict how many schools could close and where they might be; and both will be heavily influenced by local and national policy decisions.

Nationally, the number of state-funded primary schools decreased slightly from 2015/16 to 2025/26 (-0.4%), by an amount smaller than the decrease in their pupil numbers (-3.1%). The number of state-funded secondary schools, special schools and independent school increased over this period, as did their pupil numbers. See the following DfE custom table for more information.

In some local authority areas, changes have been larger. For example, in Westminster the number of state-funded primary schools fell from 41 to 33 over this period (-20%), alongside a 37% fall in pupil numbers. In Swindon the number of state-funded primary schools increased from 62 to 66 (+6%), following a 5% rise in pupil numbers.

The chart below shows the changes in the total number of pupils and schools in each local authority from 2015/16 to 2025/26. This chart would suggest a weak to moderate correlation between changes in pupil and school numbers. Generally, when pupil numbers have changed, school numbers have changed by a proportionally smaller amount.

This relationship has a Pearson correlation coefficient of r² = 0.249.

Source: DfE, Schools, pupils and their characteristics, custom table. Note: Changes in local authority boundaries mean 15 local authorities have been excluded.

Additionally, there may be other trends which mean some schools are more affected than others. Analysis from the BBC suggests that pupils with special educational needs are more likely to see their schools close and found that schools which closed from 2020 to 2025 had a higher rate of children with special educational needs than the national average.

Why are pupil numbers falling?

The National Audit Office (NAO) published a report in April 2026 on the changing demand for school places. The NAO highlighted that a decreasing birth rate has resulted in the demand for primary school places in England to fall.

Number of live births

The number of live births has been declining in England. Data from 2025 shows that there were 558,988 births, around 1.5% fewer live births in England than in 2024, and 15.9% fewer than in 2015. As shown in the chart below, since 2013 the number of live births has fallen in all but three years (2015, 2021 and 2024). The ONS defines a ‘live birth’ as “a baby showing signs of life at birth”.

While separate figures for England only have been published since 2013, longer-term trends can be seen by looking at the number of live births for England and Wales.

From 2000 to 2012 in England and Wales, generally the number of live births increased. However, like the data for England only, the number of live births in England and Wales has fallen since 2013. In 2025 there were 585,396 live births recorded in England and Wales, the lowest number since 1977.

Note: Separate figures for England only have been published since 2013

Source: ONS, Live births in England and Wales: birth rates down to local authority areas via Nomis

Population projections for primary-school aged children

In its population projections, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has estimated that the number of primary-school-aged children (aged 4 to 11, inclusive) in England will fall by around 15% between 2024 and 2034. In comparison, the ONS has projected that the total population will increase by around 3% over the same period.

Those aged 4 to 11 years represented around 9% of the total population in mid-2024 and it is projected this will fall slightly to 8% by mid-2034. In the early 2000s (2000 to 2005), around 10% of the population was aged 4 to 11.

These population estimations and projections (2024-based) are based on past trends, and they do not attempt to forecast the impact of future policy decisions or other events. They are based on census results combined with assumptions about births, deaths and migration and therefore should be treated with a level of uncertainty. More information on the uncertainty in projections data can be found in the ONS page on subnational population projections for England.

Total fertility rate

The total fertility rate (TFR) is a measure of the average number of children women would have in their lives based on current birth rates. It considers changes in population as well as the number and timing of births. Therefore, the TFR can act as a better measure than the number of live births to show long-term demographic trends, or comparison across areas.

The most recent TFR is for 2025, when the rate was 1.39 children per woman in England. This is a decrease from 1.42 in the previous year and 1.79 in 2015. As shown in the chart below, the TFR in England has fallen in most years since 2013.

Looking at longer-term trends for England and Wales, after increasing at the start of the 2000s the TFR has been generally declining since 2010. The TFR for England and Wales for 2025 was 1.39 children per woman, a down from 1.41 in 2024, and 1.79 in 2015. Between 2000 and 2025 the highest rate for England and Wales was in 2011 and 2012, when the TFR was 1.93.

Source: ONS, Live births in England and Wales: birth rates down to local authority areas via Nomis

A 2026 Resolution Foundation report linked the falling birth rate partly to financial and housing pressures. It found many people in their 20s and 30s were delaying parenthood because of costly private renting or living with their parents, while some on lower incomes were forgoing children altogether, believing they couldn’t afford them.

Fertility rate across England

In 2025, the TFR varied across England in 2025, ranging from 1.55 in the West Midlands region to 1.31 in the South West. The TFR fell in most regions compared to 2024, but stayed the same in the South East, North East and South West.

At local authority level, the highest TFR in 2025 was in Luton (1.97) and Pendle (1.96). The local authorities with the lowest TFR were the City of London (0.40), followed by Cambridge (0.92). Many local authorities in inner London and those containing university cities appear to have lower TFRs.

For information on how the TFR varies across local authorities in England, see the map below.

Total fertility rate for local authorities in England

The map below shows the total fertility rate for local authorities in England for 2025.

Source: ONS, Live births in England and Wales: birth rates down to local authority areas via Nomis

Is birth rate the only factor for falling demand?

As mentioned above, socio-economic factors such as cost-of-living and housing pressures have impacted birth rates and reducing demand for primary school places. However, these factors also have an impact on internal migration (movement of people living within the country), meaning some areas are experiencing a steeper decline in demand for primary school places than others.

For example, the falling demand for primary school places is most pronounced in London compared to other regions in England; the DfE has estimated that from 2024/25 to 2029/30 there will be an 11.4% decline in inner London compared to a 7.6% decline for London as a whole and 4.9% decline for England.

For the same period, the lowest forecasted fall in primary school pupils was in the East Midlands (-1.4%) and the West Midlands (-1.9%). A 2025 report by the thinktank, Education Policy Institute (EPI), also noted previous and projected primary pupil numbers were falling faster in London than in England as a whole.

It has been reported that the higher cost of living in London, in particular housing costs, is causing families to either move out of the area or have fewer children. A 2026 report by London Councils explained that “high housing costs and economic uncertainty” is causing a delay in people having children.

Additionally, the London Councils report found families were moving out of London – in particular inner London – to find more affordable housing. Similarly, the EPI report linked the fall in pupil numbers to birth rates and the out-migration of young families from London due to high living costs.

Policy implications

Declining pupil numbers have significant implications for the management of schools. The formula used as the basis for school funding across England is led by pupil numbers, both through a basic per-pupil factor, through which local authorities receive the majority of school funding, and a deprivation per-pupil factor. As a result, declining pupil numbers have a major and direct impact on the amount of funding schools receive each year.

Local authorities have duties under the Education Act 1996 to ensure there are sufficient school places in their area. The National Audit Office has raised questions about how, or if, this duty relates to unfilled places, which are rising as pupil numbers fall.

Changing demographics, and local variation in the demand for school places, informed changes made by the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Act 2026. Its provisions require co-operation between maintained school governing bodies, academy trusts, and local authorities relating to school admissions functions, and give local authorities the power to direct admission to mainstream academies. These changes aim to enable local authorities to better manage school places in their area, whether there are currently insufficient or surplus places.

National Audit Office report (April 2026)

In April 2026, the National Audit Office published a report on Responding to changing demand for school places, which highlighted the falling pupil numbers at primary schools nationally, and the expected fall at secondary level from 2026.

Among the key findings of the report were:

• 66% of local authorities that forecasted falling primary school pupil numbers overall still expected numbers to increase in one or more of the smaller areas for which they gather data.
• The NAO estimated that with 56,300 fewer primary school pupils in 2027 than in the previous year, schools would receive £288 million less per-pupil funding, although this could be offset by wider funding decisions.
• 92% of local authorities who responded to the NAO survey said they would downsize schools to manage falling pupil numbers.

The report particularly highlighted that as around 90% of school funding is based on pupil numbers, falling pupil numbers would affect schools’ finances. The impact on an individual school’s finances would vary depending on, for example, a school’s ability to reduce its costs or whether it has reserves to offset temporary funding losses.

Among other recommendations, the NAO recommended that the Department for Education should:

• consider the potential wider impact that falling pupil numbers may have on educational quality and outcomes for children, including those from a disadvantaged background
• in developing its framework to help local decision-making relating to unneeded places, build its evidence base for which approaches work most effectively, drawing on learning from across local authorities and previous experiences
• establish clear processes and opportunities to identify and disseminate good practice across the sector

Institute for Fiscal Studies report (December 2025)

The Institute for Fiscal Studies report Demographic change and schools across the UK: lessons from history, considered the situation across the UK, and noted that larger reductions in pupil numbers are anticipated in Northern Ireland (15% reduction between 2025 and 2035) and Wales (10%), than in Scotland (8%) and England (6%).

The IFS said that “policymakers could use this as an opportunity to make savings in the education budget, or they could use existing resources more intensively over a smaller population, [such as] through smaller class sizes”.

The report drew attention to previous periods when pupil numbers in England fell, and differing government responses:

• Primary school pupil numbers in England fell by 25% between 1973 and 1985, and teacher numbers fell by 14%.
• Between 1999 and 2009, primary school pupil numbers in England fell by 8%, but teacher numbers rose by 3%. This was because of policy objectives to reduce class sizes and was facilitated by a period of growth in school spending per pupil.

National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) article

The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) published a blog in October 2025 that considered the impact of declining pupil numbers on school finances.

The article highlighted that some schools were more likely than others to be in deficit and so less resilient to the impacts:

• There are wide regional variations in the proportion of primary schools in deficit, with above average rates in the North East, Yorkshire and the Humber, and in particular London.
• Schools with strong Ofsted ratings are significantly less likely to be in deficit.
• Primary academies are less likely to be in deficit in than local authority maintained schools.
• Small primary schools (up to 150 pupils) are more likely to be running an overall deficit than large schools.

Education Policy Institute reports (2024-25)

In April 2024 the Education Policy Institute (EPI) published a report on the effect of falling school rolls on school funding. The report identified significant reductions in school funding owing to decreasing pupil numbers, under the spending plans of the then Conservative government.

The EPI published further research in September 2025 focused on declining primary school enrolments in London, which it said reflected “more than just falling birth rates; it reveals a broader shift in where and how young families are choosing to live”. It noted that pupils leaving London frequently moved to neighbouring counties such as Kent, Essex, Hertfordshire, Surrey, and Buckinghamshire.

Further reading

The following further briefings discuss declining pupil numbers and related issues:

• London Councils, Managing school rolls and maintaining educational standards in London, January 2026
• Institute for Government, Empty classrooms present government with a challenge and an opportunity, November 2025
• Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (POST), Impacts of birthrate decline, May 2025

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