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Confidence surveys, with information generally released ahead of official statistical data, can indicate changes to the economic outlook as well as turning points in the economic cycle.

ONS Business Insights and Conditions Survey

The ONS conducts a voluntary survey of businesses to look at the impact of challenges facing the economy.

In the two weeks ending 18 September 2022, 16.2% of respondents thought their business’s performance would increase over the next 12 months. 17.6% thought it would decrease.

CBI Industrial Trends Survey

The CBI carries out monthly and quarterly Industrial Trends surveys.

In August 2022, more manufacturers thought that output would fall over the next three months than thought it would rise. The difference was -7% of manufacturers, down from +6% in July 2022.

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey

GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index (carried out on behalf of the European Commission) measures a range of consumer attitudes, including forward expectations of the general economic situation and households’ financial positions, and views on making major household purchases.

The index fell to -49 in September 2022, down by five points from -44 in August to the lowest point since the index began in 1974. It has now been at a record low for five successive months.

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