Research Briefing
As offensive military operations in the country have begun to wind down concerns remain that Malian and foreign forces will now face a protracted insurgency from Islamic militants who have continued to conduct counter-attacks from the north of the country.
Research Briefing
Zimbabwe held presidential and parliamentary elections on 31 July 2013. They resulted in overwhelming victory for President Robert Mugabe and his Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and shattering defeat for Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change-Tsvangirai (MDC-T). The 2013 elections were certainly extremely flawed – it had been obvious for some time that they would be – but there is no escaping the fact that President Mugabe and ZANU-PF have comprehensively outmanoeuvred their rivals.
Research Briefing
A brief survey of the Egyptian military’s removal of President Mohamed Mursi.
Research Briefing
Has Libya built on the achievement of successful elections in 2012 to make real progress towards a modern, democratic and secure state?
Research Briefing
The 4 March presidential elections saw Jubilee Alliance candidate Uhuru Kenyatta win a narrow victory in the first round. , Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, are both due to be tried by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in connection with the violence that followed the December 2007 elections. The victory of Kenyatta and Ruto has presented Western governments with a dilemma. While Western rhetorical support for the ICC remains strong, many in Kenya and beyond believe that pressure is being exerted on it ‘behind the scenes’ to soften its position so that the cases do not excessively impede Western cooperation with the new Government.
Research Briefing
Since 2010 President Jean-Pierre Nkurunziza and his CNDD-FDD government have been at loggerheads with the main opposition parties. The stand-off has raised concerns that Burundi’s status as a ‘post-conflict’ country might be in jeopardy. These concerns have been compounded by occasional armed skirmishes between the security forces and remaining rebel groups. However, with the next elections due in 2015, in recent months there has been some progress in terms of promoting political dialogue.
Research Briefing
Paul Kagame and the Rwandan Patriotic Front remain in a dominant position domestically, with parliamentary elections due in September 2013 and presidential elections set for 2017. President Kagame has indicated that he may step down then. But criticism continues of the government's intolerance of open dissent. Rwanda's role in in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo remains controversial too and there is virtually complete consensus across the international community that it has been providing support to rebel groups, including most recently M23.
Research Briefing
In December 2012, at the African National Congress (ANC) conference in Mangaung, President Jacob Zuma was re-elected leader of the party. This makes it virtually inevitable that he will be South Africa’s next President following national elections next year, which the ANC remain overwhelming favourites to win comfortably. Nonetheless, all is far from entirely rosy for Zuma and the ANC. In recent years it has been deeply divided over economic policy, damaged by mounting official corruption and faced with growing discontent from below over its alleged failure to deliver better public services.
Research Briefing
Joyce Banda became Malawi's president in turbulent circumstances in April 2012 and since then has sought to build domestic support and win back previously alienated Western donors through an economic and political reform programme. While she has had some successes, there is currently growing public discontent about the economy and her political position is still vulnerable. Her prospects in the 2014 elections are uncertain.
Research Briefing
This note describes the current military intervention in Mali, led by France, which began on 11 January as a reaction to the southward advance of militant Islamist armed groups with links to al-Qaeda. It also looks at the intervention in the context of upholding humanitarian law.
Research Briefing
Instability in North Africa appears to be spreading, as a hostage crisis unfolds in an Algerian gas plant run jointly by BP. The Algerian government seemed to have escaped lightly compared with other North African governments from the Arab uprisings. But the war in neighbouring Libya and increasing unrest in the Sahel region to Algeria’s south have taken their toll. It remains to be seen whether Algeria’s authoritarian regime will be seriously challenged by the twin threats of domestic political unrest and jihadi terrorism.
Research Briefing
Oxfam has launched a campaign on the issue of ‘land-grabbing’ – or what others would call ‘large-scale land acquisitions’ – in developing countries around the world, including by foreign governments or companies, with the World Bank primarily in its sights. This note is a brief introduction to the debate, current multilateral initiatives on the issue and the stance of the UK Government.
Research Briefing
This note reviews major political developments since the 2007/08 crisis, whose legacies Kenya is still struggling to overcome. Elections are scheduled for March 2013 but two of the candidates seeking high office - Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto - are due to stand trial at the International Criminal Court in the following month. Meanwhile, Kenyan troops have now been in southern Somalia for over a year and helped re-take the strategic port of Kismayo in September 2012. But there remains uncertainty about Kenya's objectives in Somalia.
Research Briefing
On 20 November, forces belonging to the March 23 (M23) armed group seized Goma, the main city in eastern DRC. This note briefly surveys the events of recent days and the many echoes of the past that they evoke. It also looks at the roles of Rwanda and Uganda, which is leading Western governments, including the UK, to review their aid programmes to both countries.
Research Briefing
Mali has been in crisis since March 2012, when the military overthrew the government of Amadou Toumani Touré. Within weeks of the coup, a coalition of Tuareg rebels and militant Islamist armed groups pushed the national army out of the north of the country. There is now growing momentum behind proposals to create a regional military intervention force. But many questions remain about the wisdom of this course of action.
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