Ukraine: China’s pathway to peace?

Fifteen months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the outcome of the conflict appears far from certain. Both sides continue to call for a decisive victory, suggesting there is currently little appetite for compromise or peace. 

However, international attention is increasingly being given to the conditions that may be required to bring about a peace settlement. 

Chinese peace plan 

China has sought to portray itself as neutral over the conflict in Ukraine and therefore a potential mediator of peace. 

At the end of February 2023 China presented proposals for reaching a peace settlement in Ukraine. Among other things, it called for respect of UN principles, the establishment of a balanced European security architecture, the cessation of hostilities, dialogue and negotiation and the end to unilateral sanctions. The plan does not, however, mention the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine or the return of occupied territories. 

Rejection of China’s proposals 

While several neutral countries including Brazil, India and South Africa support peace negotiations, Ukraine and its allies have largely rejected China’s peace plans. They question China’s neutrality given its diplomatic and economic support for Russia since the conflict began. Instead President Zelenskyy’s own peace formula, which he proposed at the end of 2022, is being supported as the basis for any talks.

Russia’s position

The Russian government has dismissed the Ukrainian peace formula saying that Ukraine needs to accept “new territorial realities”. President Putin said at the Russia-China summit in March 2023 that many of China’s proposals could be used as a basis for a peace settlement but only “when the West and Kiev are ready for it”.