GDP – International Comparisons: Key Economic Indicators

In Q3 2022, the UK recorded GDP growth of -0.3% compared with the previous quarter (Q2 2022). GDP growth in the Eurozone was 0.3%, in France it was 0.2% and in Germany 0.4%. The US saw growth of 0.8%, after two quarters of declines. 

Compared to the pre-pandemic level, UK GDP in Q3 2022 was 0.8% lower. This compares with Eurozone GDP being 2.2% higher than its pre-pandemic level, while US GDP was 4.4% higher.

For 2021 as a whole, UK GDP growth was 7.6%. This was the highest in the G7. The UK had the largest decline in GDP among the G7 in 2020 (-11.0%) and its relatively strong performance in 2021 was to some degree a recovery from weakness in 2020.

Please note that headline GDP growth figures across countries are not 100% comparable. For example, the UK takes a different approach to others in calculating output in the education and health sectors. This has resulted in the UK’s GDP growth figures being lower in 2020, and higher in 2021 (as this effect unwound), compared with other G7 economies than they otherwise would have been.

Forecasts

On 22 November, the OECD published new forecasts for the world economy. The OECD observed the “massive energy price shock” is taking a “heavy toll on the world economy”. The OECD forecasts UK GDP growth of -0.4% for 2023, the lowest in the G7, just below Germany (-0.3%).

On 11 October, the IMF published new forecasts for the world economy. The IMF downgraded 2023 GDP growth forecasts for many countries, reflecting a “sharper-than-expected slowdown” due in part to high inflation. The IMF forecasts UK GDP growth of 3.6% for 2022, and 0.3% for 2023 – that’s down from 0.5% at the time of its previous forecast (made in July).