Political developments in Afghanistan

This note looks at the political system in Afghanistan in the wake of the 2010 parliamentary elections and the moves towards reintegration and a negotiated settlement with the Taliban.

This note looks at the political system Afghanistan in the wake of the 2010 parliamentary elections and the moves towards reintegration and a negotiated settlement with the Taliban.

• Politics in Afghanistan are unpredictable and some institutions work much better than others, with the parliament showing signs of independence

• The Presidency still has much more power than other national institutions, but in global terms it is weak

• Patronage and corruption may be on the rise

• Both Karzai and Obama have made personnel changes which may be preparations for a faster move towards negotiations with the insurgency

• Inter-ethnic tensions, particularly associated with the Afghan army and other security-related institutions, is reported to be on the increase and non-Pashtuns generally oppose negotiations with the Taliban

• A real commitment from Afghanistan’s neighbours to foster stability would make a big difference. It is not clear that this is forthcoming, particularly in the case of Pakistan and India, who may play out their rivalries in Afghanistan

• The possibility of a resurgence of instability or even of civil war when Coalition forces withdraw cannot be ruled out