Somalia – President Mohamud on the back foot while al-Shabaab attacks continue

A few days ago, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud declared that Somalia was once again in a “political crisis”. In May, UN Special Envoy to Somalia, Nicholas Kay, said that Somalia is approaching “a danger zone”. What lies behind such warnings? For the first year or so after President Mohamud took office in September 2012, Western supporters of the Government put a positive spin on his performance. However, this has become increasingly difficult to do. There is a growing sense that President Mohamud’s government is not turning out to be the fresh start that Somalia needed. Mohamud’s administration has barely begun to address many of the crucial tasks it inherited from its discredited predecessor, the Transitional Federal Government. Al-Shabaab has suffered important military reverses since President Mohamud took office – most notably, losing control over Somalia’s strategically vital second city, the port of Kismayo in October 2012, and subsequently all of its remaining territory in the far south of the country. But it has adjusted to the new situation, focusing increasingly on launching regular violent attacks on government-held areas, including Mogadishu, where security has declined markedly in recent months. It has also increased its attacks in neighbouring Kenya, which sent troops into southern Somalia in 2011. Al-Shabaab recently declared Kenya to be a “war zone”.