Economic update: Household financial resilience is slowly improving
Household financial resilience has been improving but the labour market continues to weaken. Inflation increased in December but is expected to fall in 2026.
Household financial resilience has been improving but the labour market continues to weaken. Inflation increased in December but is expected to fall in 2026.
The Bank of England cut interest rates in December 2025, for the fourth time this year. However, the labour market weakened and GDP unexpectedly fell.
Economic growth remains slow, productivity forecasts are likely to be downgraded and government borrowing is at almost the highest on record.
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UK inflation remains above the Bank of England’s target rate of 2%. The Bank says that increases in food prices and administered prices are largely to blame.
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The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate to 4% in August 2025. However, there are signs that UK inflation might be persisting.
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UK inflation remains higher than expected, economic growth remains slow and public finances are assessed as “relatively vulnerable” in the long term.
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Despite the weakening of the labour market and forecasted slower economic growth, some measures show business and consumer confidence increasing.
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UK economic growth was higher than expected in the first quarter of 2025, but concerns about potential tariffs, inflation and interest rates persist.
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International organisations have lowered their growth forecasts since the US imposed tariffs on goods imports in April.
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Businesses report various challenges, most commonly economic uncertainty. Larger businesses are more positive about the future.
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Sluggish GDP growth is expected to continue into early 2025, amongst weak business confidence. The government has made growth its “number one mission”.
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UK economic growth has slowed in the second half of 2024, after a relatively strong start. Early indicators suggest Q4 growth may be close to or lower than Q3.
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With inflation close to its 2% target, the Bank of England cut its interest rate to 4.75% in November, but it now expects higher inflation and growth than it did before the Budget.
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Growth in the UK economy has slowed somewhat as businesses await the Labour’s October Budget.
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The UK exported £153 billion more than it imported in services in 2023, but it imported £204 billion more than it exported in goods.
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