Syria: no end in sight?

Syria’s background in ethnic and sectarian divisions and its history of extreme instability have created the conditions for the present bloodshed. Syria’s opposition, too, is divided and unstable; this has been one of the obstacles to the outside world providing assistance to the opposition.

This paper describes Syria’s sectarian and political history, and discusses the forces involved in the conflict. It considers the role played by other countries in trying to influence the course of events and points up the many obstacles to effective intervention. Lastly, it looks at some possible outcomes. The paper does not give a running commentary on the conflict itself. Information about opposition forces, both military and political, inside Syria and about the remaining strength of the loyalist forces is difficult to come by and such as is available will not remain accurate for very long.