A Westminster Hall debate on arms export licences for sales to Israel is scheduled for Tuesday 12 December 2023, from 2:30-4:00pm. The debate will be led by Zarah Sultana MP.
On 24 February 2022 Russia launched military action in Ukraine, with forces crossing into the country from Belarus in the north, Russia in the east and Crimea in the south.
A Special Military Operation
President Putin said Russia, acting in self defence, was launching a special military operation in the Donbas and called on Ukrainian forces to lay down their weapons. Russia’s actions came days after President Putin officially recognised the self-declared independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), the regions of eastern Ukraine that have been under the control of Russian-backed separatist forces since 2014. He subsequently deployed forces to the region under the guise of peacekeeping operations. Russia had previously denied that it was planning to invade Ukraine and said its build-up of forces on Ukraine’s borders was in response to provocative actions by NATO.
Russian forces have, however, been conducting a full-scale assault on the country. After failing to take Kyiv, Russian forces have focused on southern and eastern Ukraine. The southern port city of Mariupol came under Russian control in May 2022 after Ukrainian forces surrendered after several months of fighting. Russia’s main effort has subsequently been on taking control of the Donbas region and shoring up its land corridor to Crimea in the south.
In the conduct of its military campaign Russian soldiers have been widely accused of war crimes, allegations that the Kremlin has also levelled at the Ukrainian government.
In the last few months Ukraine has been conducting a major counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces have liberated significant territory in the northeast and east of the country, including the towns of Izyum, Kupiansk and Lyman. In the south, Ukrainian forces have retaken key towns and villages in Kherson region, north of the Dnipro River.
In response Russia declared a partial mobilisation of reserve forces and committed to defending the territorial integrity of Russia and the protection of people in the occupied regions in Ukraine. At the end of September, Russian-backed authorities in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia called urgent referendums on joining Russia, even though the regions are not totally under Russian control. Indeed, on 9 November Russia announced its intention to withdraw from the city of Kherson, the only regional capital it had captured since February 2022. The wider Kherson region, to the south of the Dnipro River, remains in Russian hands.
With the onset of winter, Russian forces have increasingly focused their strikes on Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure, leaving millions of Ukrainians without access to electricity, water and heat.
According to the Kremlin the four occupied regions voted overwhelmingly in support of accession to the Russian Federation. In a speech on 30 September, President Putin announced Russia’s intention to annex those regions and recognise, and defend, them as part of the Russian Federation. Those treaties of accession were signed into Russian law in early October 2022.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its subsequent conduct has been met with international condemnation. The annexation of Ukrainian territory has been called illegitimate and a violation of international law.
An “unprecedented” package of sanctions has been imposed on Russia by the US, EU, UK and other allies and partners around the world.
NATO has moved to shore up the defence of eastern Europe with the deployment of additional ships, fighter aircraft and troops to the region. Military assistance is also being provided to Ukraine by NATO allies, although NATO troops will not be deployed on the ground as Ukraine is a partner country of the Alliance and not party to NATO’s Article V mutual defence clause. NATO allies have also ruled out imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. As a direct consequence of Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Finland and Sweden have applied for NATO membership.
Prospects for the conflict
Ukraine has vowed to continue its counteroffensive and reclaim all of its sovereign territory. Russia has said the annexed regions will be with Russia forever. Protracted conflict therefore appears the most likely outcome unless both sides can be persuaded to return to the negotiating table. Many fear that President Putin, on the military back foot and faced with limited options, could seek to escalate the conflict, potentially resorting to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Recent Library papers
The most recent Library publications include:
Military assistance to Ukraine since the Russian invasion, 25 January 2023
What weapons and other military support have been given to Ukraine by the UK, the US and its allies and partners since Russia invaded the country in February 2022?
Sanctions against Russia, 19 December 2022
In response to Russian military action in Ukraine, Western allies and other partners across the globe have imposed an unprecedented package of coordinated sanctions against Russia.
UK forces in Estonia, 21 November 2022
The UK doubled the number of troops in Estonia in early 2022. Will this continue in 2023?
Ukraine crisis: A Parliamentary reading list (2014-present), 19 October 2022
This reading list provides links to Parliamentary and selected other material on the crisis in Ukraine since Crimea was seized by pro-Russian forces in 2014.
What powers does the UN have to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
Implications of the Russian-backed referendums in Ukraine, 13 October 2022
At the end of September 2022 Moscow announced the annexation of four occupied regions of Ukraine following a series of referendums on joining on Russia, which were widely labelled a “sham” and a violation of international law.
Other relevant Library papers
Military action and its implications
Ukraine crisis: A timeline (2014-present), 1 April 2022
This paper provides a timeline of the major events in the Ukraine-Russia crisis since Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014.
As Russia undertakes widespread military action against Ukraine, this briefing outlines some of the international legal issues involved.
Ukraine: Fears Russia could use chemical weapons, 18 March 2022
This Insight examines the nature of chemical weapons, allegations of previous use by Russia and concerns among Western military chiefs that Russia could deploy them in Ukraine.
No-fly zones and Ukraine, 7 March 2022
The UK and NATO have ruled out establishing a no-fly zone in Ukraine. What is their legal basis and when have they been used before?
Ukraine: Russia’s “red line”, 18 February 2022 (this paper will no longer be updated)
Russian military forces are building on the borders of Ukraine once again. What are Russia’s intentions and how is the West responding?
Nuclear weapons at a glance: Russia, 29 March 2022
This paper briefly examines Russia’s nuclear weapons policies, capabilities and programmes. It is one paper in a larger series on the nuclear weapon states.
Ukraine crisis: Aid and refugees, 13 July 2022
Describes the potential effect of the conflict in Ukraine and the possibility of a refugee crisis, alongside what aid the UK and others have pledged in 2022.
How does conflict affect the mental health of refugees, and how has the UK Government responded to the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine?
Organising humanitarian aid and help for Ukraine, 11 March 2022
Russia’s actions in Ukraine threaten a humanitarian crisis. The Government advises those in the UK seeking to help make cash donations to registered charities.
Ukraine: consular assistance for British nationals, 24 February 2022
This page summarises consular assistance available to British nationals wishing to leave Ukraine and links to helplines.
The international response
UK’s Overseas Territories and sanctions against Russia, 4 March 2022
The UK has imposed sanctions against Russia. This paper describes how these sanctions apply in the UK’s Overseas Territories.
UK sanctions against Russia: Arms exports, 3 March 2022
The UK has banned the export of all dual-use items to Russia in response to conflict in Ukraine.
What military assistance did the UK, the US, NATO and the EU give to Ukraine between 2014 and 2021?
This briefing paper provides an overview of the work of the Council of Europe and also covers the recent expulsion of Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Ukraine’s application to join the EU, 29 March 2022
How has the EU responded to Ukraine’s application and what would be the process for Ukraine to join the EU?
The EU response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 22 March 2022
How has the EU responded to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? This paper provides an overview of the unprecedented set of actions taken by the EU. It also provides background on the EU-Ukraine relationship and how this might develop in the future.
NATO enlargement: Sweden and Finland, 15 July 2022
NATO has invited Sweden and Finland to join the Alliance. This paper looks at the process for joining NATO and the expansion of the Alliance since its creation in 1949, and how Russia views NATO enlargement.
NATO: Reinforcing its eastern flank, 8 April 2022
NATO has been increasing its military presence along its eastern borders in response to Russian action.
NATO’s response to Russian military action in Ukraine, 25 February 2022
NATO has condemned Russia’s attack on Ukraine. It held a leaders’ virtual summit on 25 February.
European security: The outcome of talks with Russia, January 2022
In mid-January 2022 the US, NATO, OSCE and Russia held a series of talks on European security in an effort to defuse the Ukraine crisis.
What is NATO?, January 2022
This paper explains what NATO is, its structure and purpose, and how it has evolved since its formation in 1949.
Ukraine crisis and Africa, 6 April 2022
This paper discusses the responses to the conflict in Ukraine from across Africa and explores some of the ways the crisis in Ukraine has, and will continue to, affect the continent.
Imports of fossil fuels from Russia, 11 November 2022
The UK imported no oil or gas from Russia in July 2022. The total value of UK fossil fuel imports from Russia has fallen since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It was £4.2 billion in the year to July 2022.
EU energy security: Implications for the UK, 17 May 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the fragile state of the EU’s energy security. How has the EU responded and what does this mean for the UK?
The US, UK and EU aim to reduce imports of Russian oil and gas. This paper describes the ability of other countries to increase supply and the challenges in achieving this.
Geopolitical implications of Nord Stream 2, 2 March 2022
The already controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project has taken on greater significance amidst the current crisis in Ukraine. What is the future of the pipeline?
Implications for the UK
Homes for Ukraine: Beyond 6 months, 20 January 2023
This Commons briefing paper looks at the options available to hosts and sponsors under the Homes for Ukraine scheme beyond the first six months.
Rising cost of living in the UK, 21 November 2022
This briefing gives an overview of rising prices, particularly food, energy and fuel prices. It outlines Government support and how inflation, interest rates and other policies which will affect household budgets.
Support for students from Ukraine in UK higher education, 13 October 2022
Find out what support is available for higher education students who have arrived in the UK under the Ukraine Schemes.
Countering Russian influence in the UK, 1 April 2022
Widespread sanctions have been imposed on Russia for its actions in Ukraine. But there are calls for the Government to go further and bring forward long-awaited proposals on countering foreign influence in the UK.
Economic Crime (Transparency and Enforcement) Act 2022, 23 March 2022
A Bill to introduce a beneficial ownership register of Overseas Entities owning UK property, and to reform the UK Unexplained Wealth Order and Sanctions regimes.
Background to Spring Statement 2022, 17 March 2022
Due to the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the coronavirus situation in the UK is greatly improved, compared with the previous two years. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine creates a new crisis. In the UK there was concern about the effect that rising prices, and other factors, are having on household budgets. The Ukraine crisis may push energy and food prices higher still.
Ukraine: UK Immigration concessions, 11 March 2022
The Government has announced some immigration concessions for some people affected by the crisis in Ukraine. Campaigners are calling for further measures to help a wider range of people in Ukraine.
How many Ukrainians live in the UK?, 7 March 2022
We don’t know the exact number of Ukrainian people living in the UK, but what can we find from existing data?
Economic update: Ukraine crisis adds to inflationary pressures, 28 February 2022
What is the potential impact on the UK economy from the conflict in Ukraine?
Relevant historical papers
Sanctions over the Ukraine conflict, March 2015
The EU announced broad economic sanctions against Russia on 29 July 2014 including restrictions on some Russian banks’ ability to borrow money in EU financial markets, and an arms embargo
Ukraine: Towards a frozen conflict, September 2014
The conflict in Ukraine is in danger of becoming a “frozen conflict” with no clear peace agreement in sight.
Ukraine, Crimea and Russia, March 2014
In 2014 Russian-backed forces took over the Crimean autonomous assembly, which subsequently declared independence from Ukraine.
2014 Ukraine crisis, February 2014
Fears of a Russian military intervention in Ukraine are rising as the country faces a political crisis.
Service industries: Data for the sector that incorporates the retail sector, the financial sector, the public sector, business administration and cultural activities.
Exchange rates: Data on the value of the pound relative to other major international currencies.